Somalia on brink awaiting peace troops

Somali government and Ethiopian forces are hoping to stamp out a nascent insurgency in Mogadishu before the arrival of African Union peacekeepers, amid concern that the opportunity to stabilise Somalia is rapidly narrowing.

Uganda is due to provide the first 1,500 of 4,000 troops pledged by African countries towards a planned stabilisation force.

Before they arrive, however, officials and diplomats said a new Somali “rapid response unit”, backed by Ethiopian firepower, would lead an offensive against Islamist and clan militiamen involved in attacks on the Ethiopian-backed transitional federal government (TFG).

Meles Zenawi, the Ethiopian prime minister, had pledged to complete the withdrawal of his forces – bitterly resented by many Somalis – by now.

One of his advisers, Bereket Simon, said yesterday that the situation was “complex” and there had been “some adjustments”. But he claimed suggestions events were unravelling in Somalia were “overblown”.

Hundreds of Somalis have been fleeing Mogadishu in recent days amid apparently growing resistance to the TFG. “There’s a strong feeling that they have got to crack down rapidly and that this is the right moment to do it before the AU deployment,” another official in Addis Ababa said.

Abdullahi Yusuf, president of the TFG, said in London on Thursday that there could be “no military solution” in Somalia. He would soon be convening a “national reconciliation congress” aimed at reconciling the country’s warring clans.

But analysts and diplomats believe the former warlord’s real inclination is to try to subdue resistance by force. “Under these circumstances the African Union troops are going to be seen as partisan, and as supporting the TFG,” said one.