News Analysis: Somalia moving closer to total collapse

NAIROBI: Fierce mortar attacks killed more than 10 civilians in Somalia on Tuesday, and that is virtually the new status quo.

Nearly every day, government forces and insurgents shell each other across dilapidated neighborhoods in the capital, Mogadishu, scattering limbs and any remaining traces of hope. Gun prices are soaring, more clans are joining the underground, and an outbreak of cholera sweeps the countryside.

"To tell you the truth, I'm pretty worried," said Ali Mahdi Mohammed, an influential clan elder and once a contender for the presidency. "When the government came to Mogadishu last month, I felt we were going the right way. Unfortunately, that's not the case anymore, and soon it's going to be too late."

Somalia is becoming a more violent and chaotic place, though this is not how it was supposed to be. Nearly two months ago, an internationally supported transitional government expelled the Islamist movement that ruled much of the country and steamed into the capital with great expectations. But confidence in the government ― never very high ― is rapidly bleeding away.

Somalia seems to be just shy of total collapse ― again ― because the Ethiopian troops who provided the muscle to throw out the Islamists have already begun to withdraw, while none of the peacekeepers promised from other African countries have arrived.

But the violence of the past few weeks has killed that mood. A deadly insurgency has started, beginning with a few clans connected to the Islamists and expanding to several more. Many government troops refuse to get involved.

"We're not going out there," said Dahir Hassan, a police captain, from the confines of his police station. "If we get hurt, who's going to take care of us?"

Analysts agree that the violence will continue and probably intensify unless the government genuinely reconciles with clan leaders, who control what happens in Somalia.

But so far, there has been little of that. Instead of reaching out to truly influential figures, analysts say that the government has picked ministers not because they have any substantial support among their clans but because they will do the government's bidding.

The result is an increasingly isolated, authoritarian and unpopular government in which the transitional president, Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed, is accused of behaving more like a clan warlord ― which he was ― than a national leader.

"Where this government is heading is so far from where the international community wants it to go," said Ali Iman Sharmarke, co-owner of the HornAfrik radio station in Mogadishu.

A common complaint is that the transitional government is not working itself out of a job as promised. Donor nations agreed to pay the salaries of Somali officials with the understanding that they would shepherd the country to democratic elections in 2009.