Lebanon's political schism fires rumours of arms grab

Hizbollah's unwillingness to disarm remains a significant factor at the root of that political schism.

The opposition is led by Hizbollah, which proved its military prowess in last summer's 34-day war with Israel. The movement is the only big faction that retained its arms after Lebanon's 1975-1991 civil war. It did this with the approval of the other groups at a time when Israel was still occupying the south of the country. But since the withdrawal of the occupying Israeli forces, and in April 2005 the Syrian forces, calls for the movement to disarm have increased.

At the same time the loyalty of the army and the security forces is divided.

The government is dominated by the Future movement, founded by the assassinated former prime minister Rafiq Hariri, and its allies in the March 14 anti-Syrian coalition, none of which officially possesses arms in any quantity or an organised militia.

All five Shia ministers resigned from the government late last year at the start of the opposition protest campaign.

Syria and Iran back Hizbollah while the US, France and Saudi Arabia are the government's main outside backers. This has led to fears that Lebanon could become a proxy battlefield between Iran and the US, and between the wider Shia and Sunni communities.

Syria and Iran back Hizbollah while the US, France and Saudi Arabia are the government's main outside backers. This has led to fears that Lebanon could become a proxy battlefield between Iran and the US, and between the wider Shia and Sunni communities.

Tensions flared into violence in January, when a clash at a university in the Tariq Jdideh district of Beirut left four Shia dead. The opposition said armed Future supporters provoked the violence as a show of force and that they were responsible for the shootings - a charge the Future movement denies.

It is not setting up a militia but Future may have ties to some "gangs", says Mosbah al-Ahdab, an independent MP from the heavily Sunni northern port of Tripoli.

These armed gangs used to be in the pay of the Syrians and now need to be paid off by somebody else, he explains.

Mr Ahdab, part of the March 14 movement, has some misgivings about Future's ties with unsavoury elements, its failure to reach out to moderate Shia and the close ties with Saudi Arabia, all of which, he says, make it more of a Sunni-focused movement than before.

The leader of the Salafist school in Tripoli, Sheikh Salaam al-Rafi'i, acknowledges that younger followers, some of whom may have fought in Iraq, are not comfortable with the alliance between the Sunni bloc and the international community, particularly the US. A recent call by Ayman al-Zawahiri, al-Qaeda's number two, to attack UN troops patrolling the south of the country and the border with Israel may have resonated among them.

"But we organised a big gathering, the Islamic Meeting, and told everybody that this was not in our interest," says Sheikh Rafi'i.